Canada’s goods trade surplus grows to $5.4B in September, from $5.0B in August

What happened

Statistics Canada released Canadian international merchandise trade for September 2026 on November 4, 2026. These are the figures in the release and its tables. Amounts are in Canadian dollars; B means billion and M means million. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

• Exports rose 0.2% to $78.6B and imports fell 0.3% to $73.2B. So the goods trade surplus grew from $5.0B in August to $5.4B in September.
• Exports rose a little, but 8 of the 11 product sections went down. Leaving out energy products and metal and non-metallic mineral products, exports fell 5.6%.
• In real (volume) terms, exports fell 4.0% and imports fell 2.5%. This means the higher dollar values came mainly from prices.
• Compared with a year earlier (September 2025), exports were 21.7% higher and imports 14.4% higher (Statistics Canada, Table 1).
• August figures were revised. Exports went from $77.9B at first release to $78.4B, and imports from $73.7B to $73.5B.

In a chart: the last three Septembers

Putting the same month side by side shows how much exports grew this year. The trade balance was a deficit in September 2024, close to even in September 2025, and a surplus this year. Because the balance can be negative (a deficit), it is shown as numbers instead of bars. All figures are first-release numbers from each year’s September trade release: exports from Table 1 and trade balances from Table 3.

• −$1,264MTrade balance, September 2024 (deficit; M = million dollars)
• +$153MTrade balance, September 2025 (close to even)
• +$5,350MTrade balance, September 2026 (surplus)

The terms in plain words

• Exports and imports: goods Canada sells to other countries are exports; goods it buys from them are imports. This release counts goods only. Services such as travel and transport are counted separately.
• Trade balance: exports minus imports. A plus number is a surplus (Canada sold more); a minus number is a deficit (Canada bought more).
• Real (volume) terms: numbers with price changes taken out. When oil prices rise, the dollar value of exports can go up while the amount actually shipped goes down.
• Seasonally adjusted: numbers with the usual yearly pattern taken out, so August and September can be compared directly.
• Revised: Statistics Canada updates last month’s numbers with data that came in late. In the tables these carry an “r”.

The background Statistics Canada gave

• Energy exports rose 8.2%. Crude oil and bitumen exports rose 10.2% because of higher prices, and natural gas rose 32.1%. Refined petroleum exports, at a record in August, fell 13.9%. For the third quarter as a whole, energy exports were still down 5.0%.
• Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products rose 8.6%. Exports of precious metals, mostly gold, rose 16.8%; Statistics Canada said US residents bought more Canadian-held gold. Gold shipments to the United Kingdom fell.
• Exports of consumer goods (−7.1%), electronic and electrical equipment (−13.9%), industrial machinery (−9.0%), motor vehicles and parts (−4.9%) and forestry and building materials (−9.8%) fell. Statistics Canada noted that several of these products face new US tariffs (taxes on imported goods) and had risen sharply in August.
• Imports of motor vehicles and parts fell 9.1% in September, after −9.3% in August. Supply issues caused unplanned production stoppages at US plants, so imports of cars and light trucks fell 13.2%. Leaving out vehicles, imports rose 1.5%.
• Imports of electronic and electrical equipment rose 10.3% to a record. Computer imports rose 29.4%, mainly processing units of the kind used in data centres, from the United States. From January to September 2026, computer imports were 53.4% higher than in the same months of 2025.
• United States: exports rose 0.7% and imports 0.4%, so the surplus with the US grew from $12.1B to $12.3B. Other countries: exports fell 1.1% and imports 1.4%, and the deficit narrowed slightly from $7.1B to $7.0B. The share of exports going outside the US fell from 30.1% to 29.8%.
• Third quarter: exports and imports both rose 0.2%, and the quarterly trade surplus was about unchanged at $11.2B. Including services, Canada’s total trade surplus grew from $5.4B in August to $5.7B in September.

What it means if you are buying, selling or renting in the GTA (explained)

This is not advice. It explains what the statistics mean in plain words. First, to be clear: one trade report does not set home prices or mortgage rates.

• Rates: on October 28 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50% (Bank of Canada key interest rate page). The Bank looks at many kinds of economic data together. Trade data is one input, including into GDP (gross domestic product), and no one knows which way these numbers will push the next decision.
• Look inside the surplus (opinion): the bigger surplus came less from strong export growth and more from higher oil prices, more gold exports and fewer car imports. In volume terms, exports fell 4.0%. It is hard to say “the surplus grew, so the economy is strong.”
• Buyers: do not try to guess where rates go; plan with numbers. When you get pre-approved, check your monthly payment at the stress-test rate, and compare whether fixed or variable fits your budget.
• Sellers and renters: this release covers Canada as a whole and has no separate numbers for Ontario or the GTA. For your local market, GTA figures such as TRREB’s monthly statistics are the better guide.

What to watch next

• For the date of the October merchandise trade release, check the release schedule on the Statistics Canada website.
• The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision date is on the Bank’s official schedule.
• The numbers here are from the November 4, 2026 release; Statistics Canada can revise them later.