What is it?
GDP (gross domestic product) is the value of everything made and every service provided in a country over a month, a quarter or a year. It is the most basic measure of how big the economy is and whether it is growing or shrinking.
Statistics Canada publishes GDP by industry every month and total GDP every quarter. The monthly release shows which sectors (retail, manufacturing, construction, finance, real estate and so on) grew or shrank.
Statistics Canada describes GDP by industry as a measure of economic production within Canada’s borders, defined as the sum of the value added by each industry (what it produced minus the goods and services it used up).
Words you will see in a release
- Real GDP: the number with price increases taken out, so it shows whether more was actually produced, not just sold at higher prices. The “growth rate” in the news is usually real GDP.
- GDP by industry: a monthly statistic broken into 20 sectors, showing which grew and which shrank.
- Advance estimate: a rough number published before all the data is in. Statistics Canada replaces it with the official figure a month later, and the direction can change.
- Quarterly growth: growth over three months. When shown “annualized”, it is the rate you would get if that pace continued for a full year.
What it means for buyers
- The Bank of Canada looks at growth along with inflation when it sets the policy rate. Weak GDP gives less reason to raise rates; strong GDP can lead to increases to control inflation. But when inflation is high, rates can rise even with weak growth.
- Variable-rate mortgages follow the policy rate, so when a GDP release changes the rate outlook, the outlook for your monthly payment changes too. Fixed rates follow bond yields, which also react to growth expectations.
- When the economy stalls or shrinks, buyers tend to delay decisions, sales fall, and as listings pile up there is more room to negotiate on price.
- GDP alone cannot predict home prices. Look at it together with interest rates, listings, population growth and new supply (housing starts).
Example: GDP by industry for August 2026 (released October 30, 2026)
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Real GDP in August | Essentially unchanged (second month in a row after July) |
| Sectors that grew | 9 of 20 |
| Retail trade | +1.2% |
| Wholesale trade | −1.4% |
| Advance estimate for September | −0.1% |
| Third-quarter estimate | +0.3% |
Statistics Canada said the advance estimate will be updated on November 30 with the official September data.
What the law and official sources say
Quotes are copied word for word. The "In plain words" lines are our explanation, not an official translation.
GDP by industry at basic prices is the sum of the values added by all resident institutional units in Canada and is a measure of economic production within the geographical boundaries of Canada.In plain wordsGDP by industry adds up the value added by every producing unit in Canada and measures economic production inside Canada’s borders.
Source: www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=1301 · checked Nov 1, 2026
Real gross domestic product (GDP) was essentially unchanged in August. Of the 20 industrial sectors, 9 expanded. This was the second consecutive month where real GDP was essentially unchanged.In plain wordsReal GDP was about flat in August, 9 of 20 sectors grew, and it was the second flat month in a row.
Source: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261030/dq261030a-eng.htm · checked Nov 1, 2026
Common questions
If GDP falls, do rates go down?
Not necessarily. The Bank of Canada looks at inflation first. In October 2026 it raised the policy rate because of inflation (3.1%) even though the economy was flat. Check the Bank’s official schedule and statements for the next decision.
What is the difference between monthly and quarterly GDP?
The monthly figure adds up production by industry; the quarterly figure covers the whole economy including spending, investment and exports. When the news says “the economy grew x%”, it usually means quarterly GDP.
Can I rely on the advance estimate?
It is a reference for direction. It is replaced by the official number a month later, and it sometimes flips from plus to minus.