Canada’s economy flat in August for a second month; September early estimate down 0.1%

What happened

Statistics Canada released gross domestic product (GDP) by industry for August 2026 on October 30, 2026. These are the figures in the release.

• Real GDP was essentially unchanged in August, the second month in a row after July. Of the 20 industrial sectors, 9 expanded.
• Services-producing industries edged down 0.1% (wholesale trade and public administration fell, retail trade rose). Goods-producing industries edged up 0.1% (manufacturing and construction rose, utilities fell).
• Retail trade rose 1.2%, more than offsetting July’s drop. Motor vehicle dealers (+1.8%), food and beverage retailers (+1.3%) and general merchandise (+1.5%) rose; gasoline stations fell 0.6%.
• Manufacturing rose 0.3%, up for the fifth time in seven months. Machinery +3.8%, petroleum refineries +4.2%. Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing fell 5.8% because of a prolonged summer shutdown at a major assembly plant.
• Wholesale trade fell 1.4%, the largest drag on growth. Finance and insurance rose 0.2% (including more credit card lending at banks).
• Advance estimate for September: real GDP down 0.1% (manufacturing and mining fell; utilities and wholesale trade rose). This estimate will be updated on November 30 with the official September data.
• With the September estimate, the economy is estimated to have grown 0.3% in the third quarter of 2026.

In a chart: the last three Augusts

One-month changes are too small to see as bars, so they are shown as numbers, and the change from the same month a year earlier is shown as a chart. Both come from the "All industries" row of Statistics Canada’s GDP Table 1.

• 0.0%August 2024, month over month (flat)
• −0.3%August 2025, month over month
• 0.0%August 2026, month over month (flat)

The terms in plain words

• Gross domestic product (GDP): the value of everything made and every service provided in the country over a month or a year. Up means the economy is growing; down means it is shrinking.
• Real GDP: the number with price increases taken out, so it shows whether more was actually produced, not just sold at higher prices.
• GDP by industry: a monthly statistic broken down by sector (retail, manufacturing, construction, finance and so on). Quarterly total GDP is published separately.
• Advance estimate: a rough number published before all the data is in. It is replaced by the official figure a month later, and the direction can change.

What it means if you are buying, selling or renting in the GTA (explained)

This is not advice. It explains what the statistics mean in plain words.

• Rates: on October 28 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%, pointing to inflation (3.1% in September). With a flat economy and high inflation, the next rate decision depends on which the Bank worries about more. Weak growth figures reduce the pressure for further increases, but no one knows which way it will go.
• Buyers: if you plan to buy with a variable rate, factor in that rates can still rise because of inflation even when the economy is weak. Check your monthly payment at the stress-test rate when you get pre-approved.
• Sellers: when the economy stalls, buyers tend to delay decisions; TRREB’s September figures also showed fewer sales. Realistic pricing and terms matter.
• Renters: a weak economy tends to keep rental demand up, as people put off moving and buying. Remember the rent increase guideline (2.1% for 2026) at renewal.

What to watch next

• Official September GDP and third-quarter GDP: Statistics Canada said September GDP by industry comes out on November 30. Check the release schedule on the Statistics Canada website.
• The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision date is on the Bank’s official schedule.
• The numbers here are from the October 30, 2026 release; Statistics Canada can revise them later.