Canada’s inflation rate was 3.1% in September; Ontario 2.5% — the numbers by province and what they mean

What happened

Statistics Canada released the September inflation rate on October 19, 2026, and The Canadian Press listed the numbers by province in a report carried by BNN Bloomberg. Canada as a whole was 3.1%. The provinces are below (August in the last column).

Ontario (2.5%) was the lowest of the ten provinces and below the national rate (3.1%). It was up 0.1 percentage points from August.

In charts: compared with high-inflation September 2022

September 2022 was a time of very high inflation. Here it is next to last year and this year, for Canada and for Ontario.

The terms in plain words

• Inflation rate (CPI inflation): how much the Consumer Price Index (CPI, a basket of everyday goods and services) rose compared with the same month a year earlier. 3.1% means prices were on average 3.1% higher than in September last year.
• Provincial inflation: the same calculation using only that province’s basket. Gas, electricity and rent weigh differently in each province, so the numbers differ.
• The Bank’s 2% target: the Bank of Canada sets its policy rate to keep inflation near 2%. 3.1% is above that target.

How inflation connects to housing

Inflation does not set home prices by itself, but it reaches housing in two ways. First, when inflation stays above the 2% target, it gives the Bank of Canada a reason to raise its policy rate. In fact, nine days after this release, on October 28, the Bank raised the rate to 2.5%. The policy rate feeds into prime rates and variable-rate mortgages.

Second, Ontario’s rent increase guideline (the maximum yearly increase for most existing tenants) is set by the province based on Ontario’s inflation rate. Check the Ontario government’s official notice for which year’s number is used and the cap.

What it means for GTA buyers, sellers and renters (explanation)

This explains how to read the numbers. It is not advice.

• Buyers and people with variable-rate mortgages: inflation above target is a reason for rates to rise or stay put rather than fall. Check mortgage rates and how much you can borrow with your lender.
• Sellers: inflation and rates affect what buyers can afford. But you cannot read the direction of home prices from this one number.
• Renters: Ontario’s inflation rate (2.5%) is one of the inputs for future rent increase guidelines. See the government announcement for the actual guideline figure.

What to watch next

Statistics Canada publishes the previous month’s inflation rate every month. Check the official schedule on the Statistics Canada website for the October release date. The Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement date is on the Bank’s website. This article does not predict inflation or rates.