What is it?
A trade balance is the value of goods a country sells to other countries (exports) minus the value of goods it buys from them (imports).
If exports are bigger than imports, it is a trade surplus. If imports are bigger, it is a trade deficit. When the two are about the same, the balance is close to even.
Every month, Statistics Canada publishes exports, imports and the trade balance for goods in its “Canadian international merchandise trade” release. Trade in services (such as travel, transport and finance) comes out the same day.
Words you will see in a release
- Merchandise trade: trade in goods that cross the border, such as crude oil, gold, cars and computers. It is counted apart from trade in services.
- A surplus “widened” or a deficit “narrowed”: the gap between exports and imports got bigger or smaller.
- Real (volume) terms: whether more was actually sold or bought, not just at higher prices. When oil prices rise, the dollar value of exports can go up while the volume goes down.
- Seasonally adjusted: numbers with the usual yearly pattern taken out. Statistics Canada’s monthly trade tables are seasonally adjusted.
- Revised: last month’s number can be changed in the next release. In the tables these numbers carry an “r”.
- Units: in the release, B means billion and M means million. All amounts are in Canadian dollars.
What it means for buyers
- The trade balance does not set home prices or mortgage rates directly. The Bank of Canada sets its policy rate after looking at many kinds of economic data together.
- Statistics Canada explains that trade statistics are also used to build other economic statistics, such as GDP (gross domestic product). So trade numbers are one of many pieces that show how the economy is doing.
- A bigger surplus is not always good news. It can come from more exports, but also from fewer imports. Look at why it changed.
- Statistics Canada’s monthly release covers Canada as a whole. It has no separate numbers for Ontario or the GTA.
Example: merchandise trade in September 2026 (released November 4, 2026)
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Exports | $78.6B (up 0.2% from August) |
| Imports | $73.2B (down 0.3% from August) |
| Trade balance | $5.4B surplus (August: $5.0B surplus) |
| Trade balance with the United States | $12.3B surplus (August: $12.1B) |
| Trade balance with countries other than the US | $7.0B deficit (August: $7.1B) |
Seasonally adjusted. August figures are as revised in the September release. Statistics Canada can change them again in later releases.
What the law and official sources say
Quotes are copied word for word. The "In plain words" lines are our explanation, not an official translation.
Consequently, under the general trade system, imports are recorded when goods enter the economic territory of a compiling country, and exports when goods leave the economic territory of a compiling country.In plain wordsIn plain words: goods coming into the country are counted as imports, and goods leaving the country are counted as exports.
Source: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/2025001/article/00003-eng.htm · checked Nov 4, 2026
The balance of payments-basis trade data can be used to understand broader economic data and provide insight into Canada’s imports, exports, and the resulting trade balance.In plain wordsIn plain words: the trade numbers used in the monthly release show imports, exports and the gap between them (the trade balance), and help explain wider economic data.
Source: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/2025001/article/00003-eng.htm · checked Nov 4, 2026
In September, Canada's merchandise exports edged up 0.2%, while imports decreased 0.3%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the world widened from $5.0 billion in August to $5.4 billion in September.In plain wordsIn plain words: in September exports rose 0.2% and imports fell 0.3%, so Canada’s goods trade surplus grew from $5.0B in August to $5.4B in September.
Source: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261104/dq261104a-eng.htm · checked Nov 4, 2026
Common questions
Is a bigger trade surplus always good?
No. A surplus can grow because exports rise, but also because imports fall. In September 2026 exports rose 0.2% and imports fell 0.3%, and a big part of the drop in imports was fewer imported cars and light trucks after unplanned production stoppages at US plants.
Why is the surplus with the US big but the total surplus small?
Because Canada runs a deficit with countries other than the US. In September 2026 Canada had a $12.3B surplus with the US and a $7.0B deficit with other countries, which together leave a total surplus of about $5.4B (rounding means the numbers may not add up exactly).
If the trade balance changes, do mortgage rates change?
Not directly. The Bank of Canada sets the policy rate, and fixed rates are shaped by the bond market. Trade numbers are one of many pieces of economic data. Check the Bank of Canada’s official announcements for rate decisions.
Guides that use this term
Sources checked
- Statistics Canada, Reference Guide to Canadian International Merchandise Trade Statistics (13-605-X) · checked Nov 4, 2026
- Statistics Canada, The Daily — Canadian international merchandise trade, September 2026 (November 4, 2026) · checked Nov 4, 2026
- Statistics Canada, The Daily, September 2026 trade, Table 1 (principal trading partners) · checked Nov 4, 2026