What is it?
These words describe which way the balance between buyers and homes for sale is tilted. When there are more homes for sale than buyers, it is a buyer’s market: buyers can choose, and it is easier to negotiate price and conditions. When there are more buyers than homes, it is a seller’s market: competing offers appear and prices tend to rise. In between is a balanced market.
The market differs by neighbourhood and home type. In the same month, detached homes can be in a seller’s market while condos are in a buyer’s market. It also changes every month.
The two measures
Reports and news use two measures most often. TRREB calculates both as a 12-month moving average (the average of the last 12 months) and labels them "trend".
| Measure | How it is calculated | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) | Sales ÷ new listings | How many of the new listings are selling. Higher leans seller’s market; lower leans buyer’s market |
| Months of inventory | Active listings ÷ monthly sales | How many months it would take to sell every home now listed if no new ones came up. Longer leans buyer’s market |
Where does a buyer’s market start? (rules of thumb)
There is no law or official definition. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) explains it this way in its national statistics release of October 16, 2026: the long-term average of the national SNLR is 54.7%, and readings roughly between 45% and 65% are generally consistent with a balanced market. For months of inventory, based on one standard deviation from the long-term average, a seller’s market is below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market is above 6.4 months.
Those are national figures. TRREB’s report does not publish Toronto-only cut-offs. Articles and agents sometimes use other rules of thumb, such as 40% and 60%; all of these are guides, not official definitions. Watch the direction (rising or falling) rather than one dividing line.
What did the GTA look like in October 2026?
Figures for all TRREB areas and all home types from TRREB Market Watch, October 2026 (released November 4, 2026).
| Measure | October 2026 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 5,603 | −7.9% |
| New listings | 14,173 | −11.9% |
| Active listings | 25,098 | −10.0% |
| SNLR (12-month trend) | 37.9% | — |
| Months of inventory (12-month trend) | 4.6 months | — |
| Sale price ÷ list price | 97% | — |
| Average days on market (LDOM, counted per listing) | 31 days | 31 days (October 2025) |
An SNLR of 37.9% is below CREA’s balanced range (45% to 65%), which leans toward a buyer’s market, while 4.6 months of inventory is inside CREA’s national balanced range. The two measures do not always say the same thing. Both sales and new listings were lower than in the same month last year.
How each market changes negotiation
| Buyer’s market | Seller’s market | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | Offers below the listing price are common | At or above the listing price, often with multiple offers |
| Conditions | Easier to include a home inspection and financing condition | Pressure to drop conditions; many firm offers |
| Time | Time to think; sign-backs (counter-offers) are common | Set offer dates; bully offers (early offers) appear |
| For the seller | Pricing must be accurate; staging and preparation matter | Can compare several offers and choose |
These are general tendencies. Real negotiation depends on the home, the neighbourhood and the competition that week.
What to watch out for
- GTA-wide numbers can differ from your neighbourhood. Market Watch has separate tables by municipality and by home type. Look at the numbers for that area and that home type before you write an offer.
- A 12-month moving average moves slowly. Changes in the last few weeks show up first in showings, the number of offers and days on market, not in the trend figures.
- Even in a buyer’s market, a great home (good street, nothing to fix) draws competition. Even in a seller’s market, an overpriced home does not sell.
- Interest rates, jobs and government policy can turn a market quickly. The October 2026 report itself says uncertainty about inflation, borrowing costs and the economy kept many buyers on the sidelines.
Example
A buyer looking at a condo townhouse in Vaughan asks their agent for the area statistics. The 12-month SNLR was low and active listings were high, leaning buyer’s market, and three similar units in the same complex had each been listed for more than 40 days.
The buyer offered below the listing price with a home inspection condition and a financing condition. The seller signed back with a slightly higher price and accepted the conditions. In a seller’s market, the same home might have required a firm offer at or above the listing price. This is a made-up example.
What the law and official sources say
Quotes are copied word for word. The "In plain words" lines are our explanation, not an official translation.
SNLR = Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio. Calculated using a 12 month moving average (sales/new listings).In plain wordsSNLR is sales divided by new listings, and TRREB calculates it as a 12-month moving average.
Source: trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2610.pdf · checked Nov 6, 2026
Mos. Inv. = Months of Inventory. Calculated using a 12 month moving average (active listings/sales).In plain wordsMonths of inventory is active listings divided by sales, also as a 12-month moving average.
Source: trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2610.pdf · checked Nov 6, 2026
GTA REALTORS® reported 5,603 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in October 2026 – down 7.9 per cent compared to October 2025. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 14,173 – down by 11.9 per cent …In plain wordsIn October 2026 there were 5,603 GTA sales, down 7.9% from a year earlier, and 14,173 new listings, down 11.9%.
Source: trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2610.pdf · checked Nov 6, 2026
The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.7%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.In plain wordsCREA says the national SNLR averages 54.7% over the long term and that roughly 45% to 65% is a balanced market. This is a national guide, not a Toronto-specific one.
Source: crea.ca/media-hub/news/canadian-home-sales-slide-down-slightly-in-august-2/ · checked Oct 30, 2026
There were 4.9 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2026, up slightly from this summer but right in line with the long-term average for the measure. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.In plain wordsAt the end of September 2026 Canada had 4.9 months of inventory, in line with the long-term average. Using one standard deviation from that average, CREA calls below 3.6 months a seller’s market and above 6.4 months a buyer’s market.
Source: crea.ca/media-hub/news/canadian-home-sales-slide-down-slightly-in-august-2/ · checked Oct 30, 2026
Common questions
Is Toronto a buyer’s market right now?
In October 2026 the SNLR trend for all TRREB areas was 37.9% and inventory was 4.6 months. The SNLR is below CREA’s balanced range (45% to 65%), leaning buyer’s market, but it differs by neighbourhood and home type. Check the latest Market Watch and the table for your area.
What if SNLR and months of inventory disagree?
That happens often. SNLR measures how fast new listings sell; months of inventory measures how much is piled up. Both are 12-month averages and move slowly, so read them with the latest month’s sales and listing changes and with days on market.
Does a buyer’s market guarantee a low price?
No. It makes negotiating easier, not certain. Good homes attract competition even in a buyer’s market. Check the price of the specific home with a CMA.
How do I buy in a seller’s market?
Get a mortgage pre-approval, and understand the risks before you drop conditions (for example, buying without a home inspection). You can sometimes do an inspection before the offer date. Set a ceiling and do not go past it.
How do I sell in a buyer’s market?
Pricing correctly from day one matters most. With many competing listings, make your home stand out with condition, photos and staging, and be ready to accept conditional offers.
Guides that use this term
Sources checked
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2026 (mw2610, released November 4, 2026) · checked Nov 6, 2026
- CREA news release, "Canadian Home Sales Pull Back in September" (October 16, 2026) · checked Oct 30, 2026