New condo price index, third quarter 2026: Toronto down 0.8%, Vancouver down 1.0%

What happened

Statistics Canada released the New Condominium Apartment Price Index (NCAPI) for the third quarter of 2026 (July to September) in The Daily on November 3, 2026. The index shows the prices developers charge for new condo apartment units, with the 2017 average set to 100. Here are the figures in the release, plus the change from a year ago calculated from the data table.

• The “Canada” number is not all of Canada. It is the composite of the nine cities the index covers.
• Toronto’s index fell from 128.6 in the second quarter to 127.6 in the third. A year earlier, in the third quarter of 2025, it was 131.2.
• Of the nine cities, two rose from the previous quarter (Ottawa–Gatineau and Montréal), two were unchanged (Halifax and Québec), and the other five fell.
• The release shows only the change from the previous quarter. The change from a year ago was calculated for this article from the third-quarter 2025 and 2026 values in Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0273-01 (downloaded November 4, 2026). The third-quarter 2025 values for Montréal (132.4) and Québec (104.7) are flagged by Statistics Canada as “use with caution” (E).

In charts: three third quarters

Comparing the same quarter each year removes seasonal effects, which matters because this index is not seasonally adjusted. An index shows how much prices changed, so the ratio between two bars is the ratio between prices in those two periods.

Using the current Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0273-01, Toronto’s index went from 139.1 in the third quarter of 2022 to 127.6 in the third quarter of 2026, about 8.3% lower (our calculation). Over the same period, the nine-city composite went from 128.4 to 120.8, about 5.9% lower (our calculation). These are the same table figures used for the change from a year ago.

The terms in plain words

• New Condominium Apartment Price Index (NCAPI): a Statistics Canada index of the change in prices developers charge for new condo apartment units. It is not the resale price of existing condos that people sell to each other.
• 2017=100: the 2017 average is set to 100. If Toronto is 127.6, a new condo of the same quality costs about 27.6% more than the 2017 average.
• Constant-quality index: differences in the development, building and unit are valued in dollars and the price is adjusted, then prices are compared per square foot. The index does not rise just because bigger units sold.
• Census metropolitan area (CMA): the city-area unit Statistics Canada uses, made of a core city and the neighbouring municipalities tied to it, mainly by commuting. “Toronto” in this index is the Toronto CMA, not the City of Toronto, and its borders are not exactly the same as TRREB’s GTA.
• Change from last quarter and from a year ago: a comparison with the previous three months, and with the same three months last year. Comparing the same quarter keeps seasonal effects out.

How Statistics Canada builds the index

According to the survey description (record 5236), developers report prices for five unit types: one bedroom, one bedroom with den, two bedroom, two bedroom with den, and three bedroom. The price is for units sold closest to the 15th of the month; if none sold, list prices (asking prices) are used. Sales taxes such as GST and HST are left out. Responding to the survey is mandatory.

Based on CMHC data, Statistics Canada says these nine cities accounted for 88.6% of new condo apartment units completed and sold across all Canadian census metropolitan areas in 2021.

The previous quarter’s number can be revised once in the next release, and the index is not seasonally adjusted. This time Toronto (128.6) and the nine-city composite (121.5) were unchanged for the second quarter; Victoria was revised from 136.4 to 137.2. Victoria’s -1.8% change from last quarter is measured against the revised 137.2.

What it means if you are buying, selling or renting in the GTA (explained)

This is not advice. It explains what the statistics mean in plain words.

• Pre-construction buyers: adjusted for quality, developers’ prices for new Toronto condos are 2.7% lower than a year ago and about 8.3% lower than in the third quarter of 2022 (our calculation from Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0273-01). But the index is a city-wide average, and each project is different. Compare with other new projects nearby and with resale condo prices, and check whether the price list includes HST. The index leaves HST out.
• If you already bought pre-construction: if you signed when prices were higher and your occupancy and closing are coming up, ask your mortgage specialist early whether the bank’s appraisal could come in below your purchase price. If it does, you may have to pay the gap yourself.
• Selling by assignment: when developers’ prices are lower than a year ago, you compete with new units the developer is selling. Check the developer’s consent rules and fees first.
• Resale condo sellers: in September, the last month of the quarter, TRREB’s average GTA condo apartment price was $605,257, 7.7% lower than last September. The two numbers are measured differently and cover different areas, so they cannot be compared directly, but both new and resale condos are below last year.
• Renters: this index does not measure rents. Look at CMHC rental market data and vacancy rates for the rental market.

What to watch next

• The fourth-quarter 2026 new condo price index: check the date in The Daily’s release schedule.
• This third-quarter number can be revised once in the next release. See Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0273-01 for the latest figures.
• TRREB’s October Market Watch shows the resale condo trend. Check the release date on trreb.ca.
• The numbers here are from the Statistics Canada release of November 3, 2026, and the table downloaded on November 4.