Canada’s September housing starts down 11% from last year; Toronto flat

What happened

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released housing starts (the number of new homes on which construction began) for September 2026 on October 16, 2026. These are the figures in the release.

• The three largest cities: Montreal’s trend fell 8% (fewer multi-unit starts), Vancouver’s rose 6% (more multi-unit starts), and Toronto’s was flat because single-detached and multi-unit trends offset each other.
• Next release: October housing starts come out on November 17 at 8:15 a.m. ET.

In charts: the last three Septembers

Comparing the same month removes the seasonal effect. The left chart shows actual starts, the basis of the "down 11%" headline; the right chart shows the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

The terms in plain words

• Housing starts: the number of new homes where foundation work began. A home started today is usually ready to move into one to three years later (longer for condos).
• Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR): the month’s pace converted to a full year, with the spring-and-summer construction season smoothed out, so months can be compared.
• Six-month trend: a six-month average of the annual rate. One condo tower can make a single month jump, so CMHC says to read the trend alongside the monthly number.
• Multi-unit: condos, apartments and townhouses, where one building holds many homes. They make up most of Toronto’s starts.

How CMHC explained it

CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist, Aled ab Iorwerth, said in effect that a key risk for Canada now is not building enough during this period of softer housing markets. Of the four most populous provinces, only Quebec has seen modest gains in starts in 2026, and each of the seven major centres CMHC covers is behind last year’s pace. In his view, the long-term supply gap remains, and unless construction increases, the affordability gains since 2023 will be hard to sustain.

What it means if you are buying, selling or renting in the GTA (explained)

This is not advice. It explains what the statistics mean in plain words.

• Buyers: fewer starts now means fewer new homes to move into two to four years from now. This number affects supply years ahead, not today’s price. Right now there are many listings and prices are below last year (see the TRREB September figures), so it takes time for a supply shortage to show up in prices.
• Pre-construction buyers: fewer starts also means developers do not begin construction until enough units are sold. Before you sign, check whether the project has actually started and how many times the occupancy date has moved. There are 143,929 units with permits that have not started.
• Sellers: less new supply means fewer competing homes for resale homes in the long run. But that plays out over years; the price you get today depends more on current listings and interest rates.
• Renters: if fewer condos and rental buildings are built, the rental market can tighten again in a few years. Today more listings favour tenants, but keep this in mind if you are planning long term.

What to watch next

• October housing starts: CMHC releases them on November 17. Check the CMHC website for the schedule.
• TRREB’s October Market Watch usually comes out in the first week of the following month. Check the release date on trreb.ca.
• The numbers here are from the CMHC release of October 16, 2026; CMHC can revise them in later months.